All games on the menus of legal sportsbooks feature lines that give the house an edge. No sports bet works out as an even money proposition on both sides.

• Convert American Odds To Implied Probability
• Implied Probability Calculator
• American Odds To Implied Probability Formula

The house edge allows the sportsbook to make money in the long term, no matter what actually happens on the field. Some games offer odds that favor the house more than others.

Calculating implied probability is a little more complex for American odds. Let’s take the classic coin flipping example where we know the actual probability is 50%: a -110 bet on Heads. Another common thing to see when using an odds payout calculator is an implied odds option. This means, the odds correlate to the probability of a certain team winning, or outcome happening. Using the example from before, a -140 favorite has roughly a 58.3% chance of winning, while a +120 underdog has a 45.4% chance of success.

The Edge Table calculates the house edge for upcoming games across the top legal online sportsbooks. The Edge Table displays which sportsbook takes the lowest edge on each game, allowing bettors to evaluate which book presents the most player-friendly odds.

Sports Betting Edge Table

Calculating The House Edge

You can calculate the house edge on a particular game by converting the odds on both sides into implied probability. The favored team’s implied win probability percentage minus the underdog’s implied probability yields the edge built into a bet by the sportsbook.

Implied Probability Calculation For Negative American Odds

Suppose the line on an upcoming Kansas City Chiefs game looks like this:

To calculate the implied probability of the Chiefs winning, you have to put the payout odds into the implied probability for negative American odds formula:

Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds))/(-1(Odds) + 100)

Putting the Chiefs’ (-323) moneyline odds into this equation yields the following result:

(-1*(-323))/(-1(-323)+100)

That equation solves to 323/423, which converts to 76.36% (rounded up). The (-323) odds on Kansas City converts to a 76.36% implied probability of winning.

Implied Probability Calculation For Positive American Odds

To calculate the Dolphins implied probability at (+275) moneyline odds, take a look at the implied probability for positive American odds formula:

Implied Probability = 100/(Odds + 100)

Putting Miami’s (+275) line into this formula yields the following:

100/(275 + 100)

That equation converts to 26.67% as the implied winning probability for the Dolphins.

Using Implied Probabilities To Determine The House Edge

Now that you’ve converted the moneyline odds on both sides of the bet into implied probabilities, you can calculate the house’s built-in edge on the Kansas City-Miami NFL game.

To accomplish this, we add both implied probabilities together and subtract (1). Before we put the implied probabilities into the equation, we convert the percentages to decimal format:

(0.7636 + 0.2667) – 1

Which converts to:

1.303 – 1 = 0.303

The house edge on the Chiefs-Dolphins game in 0.303, or 3.03%.

Check out the latest Super Bowl Odds and How To Bet On The NFL.

Moneyline wagers represent the most straightforward way to bet on sports. A moneyline bet tasks the bettor with simply choosing the winner of a game, with no point spread involved.

All moneyline odds can be converted into implied probability, breaking down each team’s chances of winning as implied by the sportsbook’s moneyline on the game.

Converting moneyline odds into implied probability takes a bit of algebraic work. The Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator takes that work out of the equation, however, instantly converting any moneyline number into an implied probability of winning.

Implied Probability

Enter the American odds in the space provided and hit calculate to get the percent value. Note that you must place the “-” in front of favorite moneyline odds to get the proper implied probability.

What Is A Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet functions as a straight-up wager on which team will win a game. This kind of bet doesn’t involve a point spread.

The underdog on the moneyline pays out at greater odds than the favorite. Sportsbooks generally display the moneyline, point spread, and totals odds on a game, but all three function as separate bets.

Here’s a look at how DraftKings Sportsbook presented the lines on Super Bowl LV a few days before the game:

DraftKings Sportsbook Super Bowl LV Lines

US sportsbooks generally display American odds, with potential payouts denoted by the “+” or “-“ in front of the odds. The “+” indicates the underdog on the moneyline, while the “-“ denotes the favorite.

DraftKings sets Tampa Bay as the Super Bowl LV underdog, with the Buccaneers paying out at (+140) moneyline odds. The sportsbook puts favored Kansas City at (-162) on the moneyline.

Note that the point spread and totals columns for the Super Bowl also display an American Odds payout. Moneyline bets don’t involve any kind of point spread, however, and only concerns the straight-up winner of the game.

Finding Value In A Moneyline Bet

Using an implied probability calculator, you can convert the moneyline odds into an implied chance of winning for each team.

In this case, the (-162) moneyline on the Chiefs implies that Kansas City has a 61.83% chance of winning. Tampa Bay’s (+140) odds convert to a 41.67% chance of winning.

Astute bettors look for value in moneyline bets, and that assessment requires converting the odds into implied probability. If you think the Buccaneers have better than a 41.67% chance of winning, for instance, the Tampa Bay (+140) line presents value.

What Is An Implied Probability Calculator?

You can plug in and moneyline odds into the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator and convert those odds into implied probability. Other sports betting odds calculators include tools that allow you to calculate moneyline odds or the house edge by inputting the sportsbook’s offered moneyline odds.

Our implied probability calculator works the same way. Simply input the moneyline odds on either side of a bet, and the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator gives you an instant calculation of that team’s implied probability.

For “+” moneyline odds, simply input the number without the “+” sign. So for the Buccaneers (+140) odds, for instance, just type “140” into the “American Odds” field in the calculator.

After inputting “140” and clicking “Calculate” we see that Tampa Bay’s implied winning probability is 41.67%.

For “-“ moneyline odds, be sure to include the “-“ sign in front of the inputted number. Calculating Kansas City’s (-162) moneyline odds yields a 61.83% implied winning probability for the Chiefs.

Using An Implied Probability Calculator To Place A Sports Bet

This Implied Probability Calculator converts American odds into implied probability. This calculation converts the odds into a form that is easier to quantify: percent likelihood of the event occurring. This type of calculator includes the sportsbook’s margin, which means the combined probabilities don’t add up to exactly 100%.

How The Implied Probability Calculator Works

Implied probability is most useful when determining the sportsbook’s edge over the bettor. It is important to note: this is not the margin/vig/juice. This is simply the advantage they have in being profitable over the bettor. Though it will never tell you which team to select, determining the percent implied probability over 100% will point out lines where the book’s advantage is lower. In being a successful sports bettor every percentage point counts, and each point the book gives back is one more win toward profitability for the bettor.

Implied Probability Calculation For Negative American Odds

Calculating implied probability is a little more complex for American odds. Let’s take the classic coin flipping example where we know the actual probability is 50%: a -110 bet on Heads. Once again, the calculation is slightly different for minus odds versus plus odds.

Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds)) / (-1(Odds) + 100)

Which looks like:

Implied Probability = (-1*(-110)) / (-1(-110) + 100)

or:

52.4% or 0.524 = 110 / 210

That number should be familiar to experienced bettors as the break-even winning percentage bettors shoot for. Because -110 on one side of a bet usually means -110 on the other side too, we can add all the probabilities (in this case another -110 probability) to determine the sportsbook’s edge.

(Heads Probability + Tails Probability) – 1 = Sportsbook’s Edge
or:

(0.524 + 0.524) – 1 = 0.048 or 4.8%

Ideally you should be looking for bets with the lowest sportsbook edge you can. It is a subtle edge in sports betting, but remember the difference between winning at 52% and 53% is a world of difference.

Implied Probability Calculation For Positive American Odds

Let’s work a positive odds example. We’ll use the following moneyline bet where the favorite is -190 and the underdog is +160. First we break down the implied probability on +160 odds :

Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)

or:

38.4% or 0.384 = 100 / (160 + 100)

To get the other outcome, we calculate the -190 odds:

65.5% or 0.655 = (-1(-190)) / (-1(-190) + 100)

In the above example we see that the sportsbook’s advantage is:

(0.384 + 0.655) – 1 = 3.9%

What this tells us is that with no other information a bet on the -190/+160 is more likely to be successful over the long term than the -110/-110 example.

What Is Line Movement?

Convert American Odds To Implied Probability

Sportsbooks install moneyline odds on each game that gives the house a slight edge over the player in the long run.

In the Super Bowl example above, for instance, the implied probabilities for the Buccaneers and Chiefs add up to more than 100%. This happens because the sportsbooks offer this bet with the built-in house edge.

The sportsbooks aim to get enough bets on both sides of the Super Bowl to allow the house to make money no matter what. If the public puts heavy betting interest on one team, the sportsbook will start to shift the line the other way, with the goal of producing more wagers on the other team.

Legal Online Sports Betting In The US

More than a dozen US states currently offer legal online sports betting. Virginia and Michigan became the latest states to launch mobile sports wagering, with both states doing so in January 2021.

Several notable brands compete for market share in states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. These states represent some of the top online sports betting markets in the US.

States That Offer Legal Online Sports Betting

• Nevada
• West Virginia
• New Hampshire
• Oregon
• Rhode Island
• Montana
• Washington DC

Top US Online Sportsbooks

FanDuel Sportsbook

FanDuel Sportsbook takes the No. 1 spot as the biggest online sportsbook by market share in the US. The platform offers a robust selection of sports, betting types, and deposit/cashout options.

Ten states currently enjoy access to the FanDuel Sportsbook platform. Those jurisdictions include New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, West Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee, and Virginia.

DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings and FanDuel battle for mobile sports betting supremacy in several states. DraftKings Sportsbook offers one of the most comprehensive online sports betting platforms in the legal US industry.

Eleven different states can bet online at DraftKings Sportsbook. That list includes New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, West Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

BetRivers Sportsbook

Known in the sports betting industry for its player-friendly welcome bonuses and creative prop bets, BetRivers has emerged as one of the top online sportsbooks in the US in just a short time.

BetRivers takes online sports bets in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia.

Implied Probability Calculator FAQ

Is online sports betting legal in the US?

Yes. Federal laws permit states to choose to allow sports betting, both retail and online.

More than a dozen states offer legal online sports betting, and several more will likely join that list in the coming months.

When should I use an implied probability calculator?

Anytime you make a moneyline bet! Finding value on the moneyline requires that you convert the odds into an implied probability.

Once you have the implied probability for each team, you can then decide whether either team has a better chance of winning than the implied probability.

Is it legal to use an implied probability calculator?

Yes. Sharp bettors use tools like the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator for every wager they make.

Understanding how implied probability works related to moneyline odds is crucial to a winning betting strategy.

Who sets the odds at online sportsbooks?

Each sportsbook employs bookmakers, tasked with setting the odds on each game. After setting a line, the sportsbook will shift the odds one way or the other if the public is heavily favoring one side of the bet.

How do I convert American odds to fractional odds?

To convert “+” American odds into fractional odds, you must divide the odds by 100 and convert to a fraction. To convert +160 into fractional odds, for instance, divide 160 by 100 (160/100) and reduce that fraction to 8/5. American odds of +160 translates to 8/5 fractional odds.

To convert “-” American odds, divide 100 by the odds and convert to a fraction. As an example, for -160 odds, calculate as 100/160, and reduce to 5/8 fractional odds.

Implied Probability Calculator

What is the best online sportsbook in the US?

The US legal online sports betting industry involves several high-quality platforms competing for wagering dollars.

Some of the top brands in the US include DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetRivers, BetMGM, and William Hill.

Yes. Federal laws permit states to choose to allow sports betting, both retail and online.

More than a dozen states offer legal online sports betting, and several more will likely join that list in the coming months.

Anytime you make a moneyline bet! Finding value on the moneyline requires that you convert the odds into an implied probability.

Once you have the implied probability for each team, you can then decide whether either team has a better chance of winning than the implied probability.

Yes. Sharp bettors use tools like the Gaming Today Implied Probability Calculator for every wager they make.

Understanding how implied probability works related to moneyline odds is crucial to a winning betting strategy.

American Odds To Implied Probability Formula

Each sportsbook employs bookmakers, tasked with setting the odds on each game. After setting a line, the sportsbook will shift the odds one way or the other if the public is heavily favoring one side of the bet.

To convert “+” American odds into fractional odds, you must divide the odds by 100 and convert to a fraction. To convert +160 into fractional odds, for instance, divide 160 by 100 (160/100) and reduce that fraction to 8/5. American odds of +160 translates to 8/5 fractional odds.

To convert “-” American odds, divide 100 by the odds and convert to a fraction. As an example, for -160 odds, calculate as 100/160, and reduce to 5/8 fractional odds.

The US legal online sports betting industry involves several high-quality platforms competing for wagering dollars.

Some of the top brands in the US include DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetRivers, BetMGM, and William Hill.