Matchguess is a sports betting app that gives a prediction of the outcome of a.

Most people who want to place bets on sports are fans to begin with. It isn’t unheard of for a gambler to place some sports bets, especially during big games like the Super Bowl or the NCAA basketball Final Four, but for the most part, sports bettors are sports fans looking to use their knowledge of a game or of a game’s players to earn a little extra cash. Being a fan of a particular sport, a team, a college or professional squad—these are all precursors to placing sports bet. Sports betting is also a way for a fan to get in on the action of the game, with something more than self-respect at stake.

All gambling is mathematics, even games of chance. If you understand the math behind the game, you understand the game and can give yourself an advantage. For many games, like penny slots or poorly placed roulette bets, are so bad that smart bettors earn their advantage by avoiding them altogether. In sports betting, the math is more complicated. Depending on your favorite sport, you may need to think about things like bye weeks, underdogs, quarterback ratings, and injuries with the same fervor other connoisseurs reserve for fancy winces.

So how difficult is sports betting math? The math behind placing a winning bet is fairly complicated, but the way to stay ahead of the bookmaker is rather straightforward. If you collect on 52.4% of your bets, you’ll break even. We’ll have more details on that number later, including why it takes more than 50% wins to break even, but first some general knowledge about sports gambling and the numbers behind it.

That 60% betting record (with the odds of -110 that is traditional for against the spread bets in football) will leave you with a profit of $160. Think about it—your $600 profit from your 6 winning bets minus the. Simply copy a system made by other users or even the Bet Labs Pros. Turn it into a system with our filters With our easy-to-use system builder and 400+ filters spanning the NFL, NCAA Football, NBA, NCAA. Top Football Betting Systems Football is the most gambled-on sport in the world, with over £500 billion estimated to be wagered on the beautiful game each year. So you would think with such huge sums changing hands and so many millions of people participating in football betting.

Sports Betting Basics

The easiest way to demonstrate the math behind a sports bet is to make up an example. Let’s say you and your buddy walk into a casino, each with $200 burning a hole in your pocket. There’s a big game on tonight, the Cowboys and the Redskins, so you wander into the sportsbook to check up on the latest news about the game. While you’re sitting there, you see the wagering board, with some funny numbers on it. It looks like this:

• 428 Cowboys +175
• 429 Redskins -4 -200 38

Some of this is easy enough to read. The Redskins -4 means the Redskins are favored to win and must do so by at least 5 points for a bet on the ‘Skins to pay out. The next number (-200) is the moneyline, in this case the Redskins are a 2/1 favorite. The last number (38) is the total, the over/under of the expected number of points scored in the game.

More on Placing Sports Bets

Look at that over/under number, in this case 38. If you or your buddy thinks this is going to be a particularly high or low scoring game, based on your knowledge of the team’s offenses and defenses, or information about a hurt player or bad playing conditions, you can place a wager on the total of points scored.

So how is a guy supposed to know how to literally lay down a sports bet? You need to know three things:

#1 – the type of bet you want to make
#2 – the number of the corresponding team you have chosen and
#3 – the amount you wish to wager

Knowing all that beforehand gives the ticket writer the details he needs to write the ticket without having to bend over backwards to process your bet.

Tipping and Sports Betting

We haven’t even gotten to the meat of the sports math yet, and we’re already talking about tipping the staff behind the window? Yep. Here’s why.

If you place two $100 bets, and you win, you’ll collect $440. You should consider leaving a tip around five percent of your winnings. Yes, that’s a $22 tip, but you just made a huge win, and surely you can spring for a twenty-spot for the guy who helped you win it. If you tip around the five percent mark regularly, when you win, you’re way more likely to get free drinks, which is about all you’re going to get comp-wise at the sportsbook.

So, back to the basic math of sports betting. You and your buddy, after much deliberation, decide to each place a $100 bet on your favorite team. What now?

To bet on the Redskins using the point spread, your bet is called “laying the points.” For your bet to pay off, the ‘Skins have to win by five or more to cover the spread. Remember, if the ‘Skins win by exactly four, the game is a push, and both sides recoup their bet. Another alternative is called “taking the points” with the Cowboys. That means the Cowboys have to lose by three or less for your bet to win, or if the Cowboys win outright. So you and your buddy go up to place your $100 bet, and you find out that the standard straight bet at any bookie pays 11/10. That means you have to bet $110 if you want to win $100. You and your buddy pay the bookie $110 and sit down with drinks to watch your bets come in.

These are deceptively simple bets. Deceptively because they make it look like the outcome of the football game is like the outcome of picking marbles out of a bag. Put one black marble and two white marbles in a bag, pull one out at random, and there’s your football game. After all, the odds are the same: 2/1 for white.

But we, as sports fans, know that the mathematics of a sporting event is much more complex. Sports bettors deeply involved in their hobby will subscribe to weather bulletins from major cities that take part in their sport, making huge wagering decisions based on a few mph of wind in one direction or another. Then there’s the unknown—does a player get hurt in the first quarter? Does weather become a factor? Is a particular player “in the zone?”

How Do Bookies Make a Profit?

Just as we finish ruminating on the concept of the difficult math at play in the background of major sporting events, we’re going to turn right back towards the simpler side of sports betting. Bookies make a profit because of vigorish. What’s vigorish?

Look at the above example again. You and your buddy each paid $10 to the bookie to place your bet. That’s what the standard 11/10 odds in sports betting are all about. You bet the Cowboys and your buddy bet the Redskins, a total of $220 bet. The sportsbook has to pay back $210 to the winner, leaving a nice $10 profit no matter what happens on the football field. That $10 built-in profit is called the vigorish, and it’s the final monkey wrench in the gears of sports betting.

Obviously, sportsbooks are going to take more than two bets on any game, but this example is for simplicity’s sake. Looking at the total number of bets on different games over the course of a week and adjusting the moneyline and other numbers is another way the bookie makes a profit. Adjusting the odds a tiny percentage point in either direction will affect the balance of beats and make the book more likely to turn a profit no matter what.

Essentially, a bookie is a person who holds on to money from bettors then pays them if they win and keeps their money if they don’t. That’s what the job is boiled down to its essence.

When a bookie sets odds for games, he will build what bookies call an “over round” into his set of odds. Another slang term used for this formula is “the juice.” For the sake of simplicity, let’s look at a boxing match where both contenders are equally talented, of equal stature, etc. Since they both have an equal chance of winning, a casual bet may be even money. You put $20 on one guy; your friend puts $20 on the other. Whichever fighter wins awards the bettor with the total of $40.

Football Betting Odds Today

Bookies don’t offer even money like friends in a casual betting situation. In the above example, with two evenly matched boxers, a smart bookie will offer 5/6 odds for each. That way, a $10 winning bet would only return $8.30 plus your stake. What does this do for the bookmaker? He can float an equal amount of money on both fighters, winning no matter which fighter actually wins. If they take $1,000 worth of bets on one boxer and $1,000 on the other, the bookie would take in $1,000 but only have to pay out $830, for a guaranteed $170 profit regardless of the outcome.

Bookies look at the weight of their books all the time and adjust odds and other factors to make sure their books balance. Though it isn’t possible to completely balance a book, bookies that go too far out on one side run the risk of losing money, and losing money in gambling is the fastest way to find yourself in another industry. All of these factors are why bookies generally root for the underdog—too many favorites winning in a sport with a short season (such as the NFL) can cause a bookmaker to lose money, while a bunch of upsets (like you generally see in college football) is a guaranteed profit for the bookmaker.

The short answer here is that bookies making money has nothing at all to do with your betting. It is almost unheard of for a single customer to be allowed to place enough bets to sink a single book all on his own. High rollers in sports betting get special privileges in terms of their maximum bet size, but these privileges often change with the bettor’s luck—maximums get raised after the bettor sees big losses and decreased (sharply) when the bettor starts to get lucky.

In short, a sportsbook’s profits aren’t necessarily impacted directly by the way an individual bet is called. Unlike casino games or slot machines, where it’s you against the house, sports bettors fuel the bookmaker’s business and only rarely is an individual bettor betting against the bookie.

Sports Betting Odds

Remember at the beginning when we talked about the magic number necessary to guarantee a break-even week in sports betting? If you read enough about sports betting, you’ll hear this number repeated often: 52.4%. If a bettor can win 52.4% of his bets, he’ll break even. Where does that number come from?

When betting the spread, you get odds of -110. Sometimes, sportsbooks will offer a -105 line as a promotion or to welcome new business. But for the most part, if you’re betting the spread, you’re getting -110.

We draw that 52.4% break even number right out of the odds. -110 is equivalent to 11/10. That means if you bet 21 games, you’d have to win eleven of them and lose ten of them to break completely even. Even at -105, you’d still have to win an astounding 51.2% of the time just to break even.

If you don’t trust the basic math behind this break-even principle, look at another real-world example. Let’s say you get really into sports betting after your Cowboys cream the Redskins and you go home with a nice fat wallet. You then bet on the next 10 Cowboys games, winning six times and losing four times.

That 60% betting record (with the odds of -110 that is traditional for against the spread bets in football) will leave you with a profit of $160. Think about it—your $600 profit from your 6 winning bets minus the $440 you lost on losing bets leaves $160. It took you $1,100 to win $160, meaning you have to bet $6.87 to win $1 on average. So you see the small differences between a 52.4% winning rate and a 60% winning rate—inside those 7.3 percentage points lies hundreds of dollars in profit.

Now imagine instead that you lost one of those six winning bets, leaving you with a 50% betting record. You spent a total of $1,100, won $500, and lost $550. That means overall your 50% record drained your wallet by $50. That’s where the vigorish will get you. Not even winning half the time is good enough to break even in sports betting.

Professional Sports Bettors

Believe it or not, some people really do bet on sports for a living. Maybe they work part time at a sportsbook or in some other marginal job in the casino industry, but there is a group of gamblers who bet on sports for their life’s work. With all the math swirling around in our heads after the last bit of the article, it’s hard to imagine anyone wanting to do this for a living.

If you know that a 52.4% record will mean you break even, the simplest way to turn sports betting into a career is to bet enough so that a 53% winning record will bring in the kind of money you want to make.

Another example. After your successful Cowboys experiment, you decide to invest $10,000 in sports gambling over the first four months of the following football season. That $10,000 is set aside to win or lose in sportsbooks.

You plan on betting on 160 games during your investment period. You dream of a 55% winning record because your win-loss with a 55% winning record would give you an 88-72 record. That’s an expected profit of +8.8 units. How did we get to that number? To calculate your units, subtract the total of your losses (multiplied by 1.1 to include the vig) from your wins and you’ll get your unit profit.

Placing $460 bets on each of these games, a number pulled from some quick and dirty math about how much you could afford to bet in a single week’s NFL play without blowing your bankroll, would result in a $4,048 profit if you maintain that 55% winning record. Turning $10,000 into $14,048 in just four months is an investment return of 40.48%. I dare you to ask your bank for that kind of return on your savings account.

But that’s all assuming you can pick the winner 55% of the time. Do your research, look into the records of professional sports gamblers. 55%, while not impossible, would place you among the elite sports bettors in the country, if not the world.

Professional sports bettors have to worry about variance more than any other type of gambler. Working against the forces of variance means managing your bankroll over the course of the season to avoid the negative possibilities that could totally empty your wagering account. Professional sports bettors have the time and resources necessary to calculate these variances, and there are even a few pieces of software out there that can help you figure out your ideal bet in the face of negative variance. But the bottom line is that professional sports bettors would dream of having a 55% winning record, simply because it guarantees you’re beating the house.

Pro bettors make their money on bets that sportsbooks offer that give them even the slightest betting advantage. The key to becoming a profitable sports bettor is being able to find advantages, opportunities where the line a book is offering is vulnerable.

This is why many long-term sports bettors are math freaks. Good sports bettors understand statistics, particularly what are called inferential statistics, though any higher math will help when it comes time to place a bet.

Here is what a professional baseball bettor might do in his head. After looking over statistics from MLB (kept religiously by all sorts of bloggers, data archives, and magazines) between the years 2000-2010, he notices a particular statistic pop out. For example: when the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss, that team wins 59% of the time. Good sports bettors can do this sort of math in their head or very quickly on paper. From that bit of information comes a new betting theory—look for game situations that mirror the above example and bet on them. That means he’ll only bet games where the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss. Does he just jump in and start betting based on this back of the napkin math? No way. More statistical analysis is required—he may find that this was a fluke for that particular decade and isn’t a trustworthy statistics, or he may find an even more advantageous bet based on his original theory.

Pro sports bettors also keep near-obsessive records of their bets. Obviously, no edge in sports betting lasts longer than a single game. Taking proper records will also help you test theories, like the above one about left-handed pitchers and losses. Without taking good records, no sports bettor’s bankroll will last very long.

What Is a Good Record for Sports Bettors

So, at the end of the day, what could you call a “good” record for a sports bettor? Most casual gamblers looking into sports betting see a pro advertising his 1100-900 record and shake their head a little. How could such an abysmal record be something to be proud of? That’s a 55% winning percentage, and it indicates to those in the know that this bettor is actually turning a profit placing bets on sports.

A good record for a sports bettor is any record equal to or larger than 52.4%, because that number or anything higher means you’re not losing money. A 53% winning record, while not impressive on paper, means you’re actually beating the sportsbook and putting money back in your pocket. Ask your friends that play the slots or play online poker how often they end up putting money back in their pocket.

A -110 wager, standard for spread bets in the NFL, gives the house a built-in advantage of 10%. It means that even if you do win, and you line up to collect your $100, some sucker behind you just spent $10 to hand the casino $100.

A good record for sports bettors is any record that ensures they at least break-even. If you bet 16 games this NFL season and you won 9 and lost 7, you probably made money. And taking money away from a casino is always something to be proud of.

Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Future Betting Strategy
» NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy
» Parlay Betting Strategy

Sports Betting Break Even Video:

In the video above I go over the break even % for sports betting, and we take a look at the difference between hitting 52% and 53%. I also quickly show the amounts of profits you can expect if you can hit 55% consistently.

Betfair.com is the biggest sports betting exchange. In Betfair the players bet against each other and not against the Betfair itself. Because of this, the stakes ratios are higher here than anywhere else. Another difference is that in the betting exchange you can not only buy stakes, but also sell them, which opens up new money earning possibilities – sports trading.

The idea behind it is the same as in the currency, stock and product markets – to buy cheaper and sell at a higher price. The difference is that the ratio is affected by the performance of the team or the sportsman.

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Football is the world’s most popular type of sports. Numerous football games take place every day in various countries of the world. To make the games more interesting, trading exchanges offer to predict the outcomes of the games and place bets on them.

Betfair.com also offers this opportunity, as well as a chance to trade or speculate with the stakes. The aim of the trading is to create a situation when, no matter what the outcome of the match is, you are still the winner. The main goal of sports trading is to create a situation when you are in profits no mater what the outcome is. Let`t get to the point!

Here are are 6 proven and profitable Betfair exchange Football trading strategies:

The simplest football trading strategy

Lay The Draw is the most popular Betfair football trading system. This Strategy is mostly used by beginners. If you apply this strategy to the correct type of match, you are almost guaranteed to profit 100% of the time.

The Strategy

The concept of this strategy is very simple – when a goal is scored in a football match, the prices of all the match outcomes (home win, away win or draw) changes. How it changes depends on many factors such as which team scores the goal and the time of the goal.

In this strategy we are trying to lay the draw before the kick-off, and back it at higher price after goal is scored, therefore securing a great profit.

Before the game: Select match by the following criteria:

• Favorite odds is lower than 2;
• Odds on draw is lower than 4;
• In last 3 games there haven`t been 0-0 draw for none of the teams;
• The favorite team scores more than one goal in match on average;
• Head-to-Head between the teams indicates lots of goal (should be within the last two years);
• The liquidity in the market should be at least 40 000.

In-Play:

• If the favorite team scores first, get out of position and green up;
• If the underdog scores first, use the “Metaltone” strategy: back the draw for 50% initial lay stake and lay the underdog for 75% initial lay stake. If there is an equalizing goal, you can then green up an take an overall profit. If there is no equalizing goal and the underdog wins the match, accept the loss (or in some cases small profit) that is sitting on the underdog team and move on to the next game;
• If still 0-0 when the draw price hits 2.0, “red” up and accept the loss.

A Score Grid visualization of this football trading strategy

Socrates strategy is a variation of the Aristotle and Clint strategies. It is designed to maximize profits and reduce the losses and does not require a lot of in play management.

Why this strategy works?

Using exact match selection criteria as in the Aristotle and Clint strategies, the Socrates becomes a simple trading strategy for beginners to implement. We take our positions in the market at the start of the match and only need to make any moves if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes. Because of its simplicity it is possible to trade multiple matches at the same time.

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The edge in this strategy lies in the selection of right matches, the probability of teams scoring over 2.5 goals and how often these teams play a match where Both Teams are scoring a goal.

In this trade we are looking to win in two markets – Both Teams To Score and over 2.5 goals market to maximize our winnings.

In matches where one side scores 6 goals are often a consolation goal to loosing team which would give us double win.

How this strategy is played?

We are looking for football matches where the odds of Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals markets are over 1.80.

In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:

• € 40 back bet on Both Teams To Score YES market at odds of 1.80 or more;
• € 40 back bet on over 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.80 or more;
• € 8 back bet on Correct Score 0-0;
• € 12 back bet on Correct Score 1-1.

Correct score grid visualization of Socrates Betfair trading strategy

Bets and odds for Socrates strategy implementation

In the images above you can see a Correct score visualization of outcomes of this strategy. As we can see, the ROI if the bet lands is almost 50%, which is quite a lot.

You do not have to do any adjustments, unless the scoreline is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 played minutes.

If the scoreline is 0-0 at 60 minute mark, green up 0-0 scoreline and scratch 1-1 scoreline. You will also have to take a hedged red on over/under 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score markets.

If the scoreline is 1-0 then green up 1-1 scoreline, and make a scratch trade on over 2.5 goals market and take a loss onBoth Teams To Score market.

Any other scoreline will give us an edge in this trade. If the scoreline does not change until 80 minutes then we need to take a look at it and make some adjustment if needed.

At that moment we can exit the trade or stay in it with a hope of win on 1-1 scoreline, over 2.5 or Both Teams To Score. Ideal would be a win in both markets – Over 2.5 goals and BTTS.

What can go wrong?

The downside in this strategy is 0-0 scoreline or two goals scored by one team. We can take an extra insurance position on 0-0 for a winnings of € 50. We can also take a small cover on 2-0 scoreline by backing 2-0 and 3-0 when the score is 1-0.

This is one of the most popular trading strategy on Betfair exchange. Over/Under 2.5 goals market is right next to the Match odds market in terms of liquidity. This Betfair trading strategy is based on teams scoring Over 2.5 goals and that happens a lot!

The strategy

Using this strategy we will use two markets Over/under 2.5 goals market and Correct score market for cover.

Under 2.5 means, we’d expect 2 or less goals

Over 2.5 means, we need to see at least 3 goals in the match.

This strategy is low-risk, because if the favorite scores at least 1 goal, we will be at non-lose point or scratch. Then we will have to wait only for 2 more goals for profit. But this strategy is not for newbies at it requires certain ability to adapt and trade in two different markets at the same time.

Before the game

• Look for games where there is a favorite priced 1.4-1.7;
• Odds on over 2.5 goals are 1.7 or higher

Bets

• Back bet on over 2.5
• Back bets on Correct scores 1-0, 2-0, 1-1. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market.

Bets on Correct score market looks like this

As we can see if score turns 1-0 we cant lose anymore as next possible scores are covered (1-1, 2-0) and other possible scores are over 2.5 goals which means profit. If the favourite scores first goal early in the game, we can exit the trade with profit without waiting the game to end. If the odds on over 2.5 goals are higher, we can make a small bet on 0-2 in favor to underdog.

Correct score grid example of over 2.5 goals trading strategy on Betfair

Correct score grid view is one of the ways how to see the full picture of Betfair trading strategies. There is a software called Betpractice ScoreGrid, where you can see on which scorelines you will win and on which loose.

In this example you can see that if the favorite team scores a goal, then we have guaranteed a scratch trade. The only dangerous results are 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2, which are quite unlikely to happen. If wee look at the ROI figures for this football trade, then it is only 18% if there is over 2.5 goals in the match.

What can go wrong?

Of course scoreline 0-0 is the worst, where we loose all our bets in both markets. Therefore if you are watching the game and favorite is not at the best form and score at the halftime is 0-0 it is advised to leave the markets with a loss. Another option is to place a bet from the potential profit on scoreline 0-0. The odds on 0-0 will be shortened to about 4.0. By doing this, the only dangerous scoreline will be 0-1 in favor to underdog.

Football Betting Odds

Summary

Over 2.5 goals is a great strategy for games where you are expecting goals. By the way, you only need one goal for strong favorite and you are in the safe spot! The potential profit is not huge – about 30% of the liability, but if you choose the right games, you will be in long term profits!

The Aristotle trading strategy is Over 2.5 goals market Football trading strategy with insurance positions in correct score market and Under 1.5 goals market.

Why this strategy works?

By doing a statistical research on the probability of over 2.5 goals scored in a football game and entering the market when the odds of over 2.5 goals are in our side.

How this strategy is played?

We’re looking for matches where there is a good statistical chance of both teams scoring, yet a price on over 2.5 goals of at least @1.90 (ideally higher). Where the price of over 2.5 is lower than @1.7 there is no value for us so we must wait to get involved.

In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:

• € 58 (or 58% of the stake) back bet on Over 2.5 goals;
• € 14 (or 14% of the stake) back bet on 1-1;
• € 28 (or 28% of the stake) back bet on under 1.5 goals.

This is how pre-match bets on Aristotle trading strategy looks like

In the Correct Score grid above you can see how pr-game bets looks on this strategy. As you will have to implement moves in play, we can not calculate the probable ROI of this trade.

If there will be no goals scored early in the game, the odds of under 1.5 goals market will lower – that will create a profit to cover some of the potential loss on over 2.5 goals which, logically will be moving against us.

From the 23th minute of the game we should green ip Under 1.5 goals market as the first goals statistically are scored from the 24th minute of a match most often.

When the first goal is scored, a part of liability from over 2.5 goals market can be removed, and when the second goal is scored we can already hedge out for a profit.

If the underdog team scores the first goal we can place a lay bet off half our stake on 1-1 in order to reduce our liability on other scores to € 7.

If the result becomes 1-1 we can then lay off one more time for around € 25 to create a scratch on 1-1 and € 20 on all other scorelines.

When a football match goes as expected we can get a solid return of 20-80% of invested money.

Match Selection criteria:

If you want to make money on Betfair Football markets, then you will need to match the right football games with the right trading strategies.

To select the games for this strategy we use following criteria:

• Home team: Average goals scored, conceded, combined average, percentage of Over 2.5 goal games, percentage of Under 2.5, strength of attack and defense
• Away team: Average goals scored, conceded, combined average, percentage of Over 2.5 goal games, percentage of Under 2.5, strength of attack and defense

Then the combined average score and the probability of over 2.5 goals is calculated

In match-ups where the calculated probably is more than 60% we will have a qualified game for trading and will look for odds of the right value to recommend a trade.

What can go wrong?

A dreaded 0-0 draw will make us loos all our stake. We can make an insurance bet on 0-0 or Under 0.5 goal markets for a half of our stake.

In this Betfair football trading strategy we are looking for a strong home side and odds of Over 2.5 goals market of 1.90 or more (ideally – 2.00 to 2.10) and Under 1.5 goals market is 3.60 or more.

The ideal scenario in this strategy is that both teams scores a goal, perfectly the game ends with 2-1 or 2-2.

You should also look in H2H statistics for recent games that has had goals and 1-1 games.

Bets in this strategy are placed before the game starts.

This trading strategy similar to the Aristotle strategy as the returns are 20 to 80% return if the game goes our way.

How this strategy is played:

In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:

• € 60 back bet on Over 2.5 goals market;
• € 10 back bet on Correct score 1-1 (sometimes you may split 1-1 and 2-0 to favorite and stake 50-50);
• € 10 back bet on Under 1.5 goals market;
• € 20 back bet on Correct Scores 2-1 and 2-2 (you may back only 2-2, if both sides are evenly strong).

In Clint football strategy the over of 2.5 goals market should be at least 1.90. In some games, where the Scoreline 2-0 seems quite possible you can split the 1-1 and 2-0 Correct score cover bets.

Correct score grid example of The Clint Betfair trading strategy

As you can see in Correct score grid example above, the most dangerous scores in this strategy are 2-0 and 0-2. If the result becomes 1-1 at some point of the game, then we are in a really comfortable trading position as the maximum loss is only 10% of our stake, but probable profit is 200%.

This strategy can be very profitable if you can choose the right games to trade!

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Usually Over/Under bets are placed on 2.5 goals market. This Betfair trading strategy is based on Over 1.5 goals market, which is a more reliable market to place bets, because you will need only two goals in the game to win this bet.

The strategy

In this strategy we will be trading Football under 1.5 goals market.

Under 1.5 goals means, that there will be 0 or 1 goals,

Over 1.5 goals means, that there needs to be 2 or more goals scored in the match.

In this strategy the bets are placed only when the game has started or in-play, but never before the game.

The odds of Under 1.5 goals market tends to raise fast.

On average the odds for Over 1.5 goals are 1.30 or more before the match.

That is not enough to make a profit in long term. That is why you should not enter the market before the game. Sit back and just observe the match. Each minute without a goal will raise the odds.

After 15 minutes in the game, the odds should be at about 1.45.

After 30 minutes in the game the odds should be about 1.70 and if the first half will be goalless the odds usually will rise to 2.0 or more.

And that is what we are looking for! At this time we are going to place our bet.

You can place your bet in the 40. minute of the game if you want or you can wait till the half time. The later you will place your bet, the bigger your profits will be.

When the goal will be scored, the odds will drop significantly, usually back to 1.50 or less, if the goal will be scored till the 60th minute of the game. Then we can immediately trade out for an overall profit.

The time of the first goal will determine the profits. If the first goal will be scored between 46th and 55th minute then profits should be around 50% of bet amount. And it happens regularly!

In this strategy we are looking to place our bets after 30th minute of the game ,remember that.

After this time have passed without goals, check the odds of Over 1.5 goals market and if they are 1.50 or more make your bet.

For extra security, you can also check the in-play statistics.

If the last matches of teams have gone over 2.5 goals for both sides or at least the home side, make a bet.

If the goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of the game, this strategy is not suitable anymore.

Summary

This is a great universal betting strategy. The only minus is that you will have to follow the games – you’ll have to watch the games on your mobile phone or in some live-stream or at least keep an eye of live-scores and that will take a lot of time.

Recap of this strategy:

• Bet on over 1,5 goals market instead of 2,5 goals;
• Analyze games and bet only on the games that are predicted for over 2,5 goals;
• Do not place bets until the odds for Over 1,5 goals are at least1,50 or more;
• If the goal is scored till 60 minutes of the game, after you have placed a bet, you will make profit if you green up. You can also leave the bet and wait for one more goal.