Educational

• How To Win The Bookies
• How Do Bookies Set Odds For Football

Bookies calculate the odds by looking at the history between the two teams, current form, expert human opinion and lots a data analysis. For example, if Liverpool are hosting Norwich City, everybody knows that Liverpool are most likely to win. Bookmakers do such calculations. But they do not just rely on it alone.

Damien

1. The last and most accurate judge for the odds sets are the masses. If a bookie offers a set of odds and sees that certain outcomes are being overwhelmingly backed, he will adjust them, so that money is diffused on other odds as well. This happens regardless of the bookie’s match estimation, as he is simply trying to secure his commission.
2. Multiplying both a and b by the same number gives odds equivalent to a-b. Decimal odds are a single value, greater than 1, representing the amount to be paid out for each unit bet. For example, a bet of £40 at 6-4 (fractional odds) will pay out £40 + £60 = £100.

Setting The Odds: 'Pricing Up' the Market. A bookmaker will first of all price up the 'real' chance of an event i.e to 100% and then alter the prices for the in-built margin he has established for the type of event. The betting company calculate the probability of each outcome occurring and then subtract the margin. If the real probability is 2/1 (3.0 in decimal, 200 in American) then the bookie will subtract their 5% margin and the real odds given will be 19/10 (2.90, 190).

December 4, 2019

In the world of sports betting, many prospective gamblers are either immediately enticed by the profits of betting, or they are too scared to hop into the lifestyle. Either of these is not the safest or healthiest way to get into betting. To be honest, a lot of betting is mainly concentrated on the mathematics of probabilities. Think about it! Have you ever wondered why so many advertisements are telling you that you will win? If so, you’ve probably thought to yourself “How come these random strangers want me to win? Won’t they be losing in the long run?” No, they won’t. Today, we will explain how you can identify the best odds and beat the bookmaker odds and begin winning games.

Firstly, there isn’t a holy grail formula for sports betting. You have to breathe in this fact before you can truly begin to look at the betting world from clear lenses. Remember that you are not betting because you feel like you have a high probability of winning. Instead, adopt the mentality of betting to increase your probability of winning over the bookmaker’s odds. To make profits in betting, your judgment should be better than the bookmakers.

To find the best value odds, you have to understand the concept of value which is important to understand any betting tips. The reward may be either positive or negative. A positive value is if you are more likely to win a wager than the chance in the odds. In other words, a positive value exists when your wager is more likely to win than suggested in the odds. If a wager is less likely to win than the odds suggest, a negative value is. You will need a positive value to make money. To make money, you’ll need a positive value.

When identifying value in sports betting, there are two fundamental steps to take. You have to measure the likelihood of the outcome and then equate those probabilities with the expected chances of the wager-related odds. Matches are very unpredictable and in football betting, there are too many possible variables to use. Therefore, you must try to make assessments using research and analysis while trusting your judgment.

To illustrate how you can identify value in real scenarios, here is an example of football betting. There is an upcoming match between Chelsea FC and Manchester City FC. We want to put our bet on the winner of the match. So, we need to assess the chances our winner will have. In this scenario, for the Premier League standings, Chelsea FC is 4th on the league table with 8-2-3 and Manchester City is 3rd on the league table with 9-1-3. The scales are tipped towards Manchester City for this matchup.

Additionally, when you want to find out the chances of winning for a team, there are many important pieces of information such as world ranking, past meetings, team value, and others. Let’s say from this, Manchester City FC holds a 72% chance of winning against Chelsea FC with 28%. Now, after taking a look at the betting sites online, we have seen that the odds offered for Manchester City are 1.42 which converts to 70.4% for the implied probability. Meanwhile, there are odds of 6.33 for Chelsea which is 15.8% as the implied probability.

From the standings and statistics for Manchester City FC, there is a 72% chance of winning. However, this is higher than the implied probability of 70.4% which means that there is no positive value. There is no positive value once the actual probability is higher than the implied probability. However, Chelsea was estimated to have a probability of 28% which is higher than the implied probability of 15.8%. With these results, it will be best to bet on Chelsea because the odds are in their favor due to a positive value.

It seems like a lot to take in, but this knowledge will help you improve significantly in the world of sports betting. Many betting tips will help you learn how to evolve your chances and this is an important step to fully utilize new knowledge on betting. Beating the bookmaker odds is the goal of profitable betting experience and winning games in the long run.

Educational

Damien

December 4, 2019

How bookmakers are balancing the book so no matter who wins, the bookie makes a profit?

The world of betting is a risky business. Customers definitely understand the probabilities that are involved in their betting to be profitable. However, bookmakers are also affected by the risks of betting. Bookmakers only make a profit by pricing their betting markets towards making sure that the odds offered are lower than the statistical and researched probability of the event. To successfully market their betting pricing, the bookmakers also channel their efforts towards keeping their markets attractive to potential customers.

To keep their success consistent in the long-term, bookmakers’ practice what is called overround. Overround is a practice where bookmakers factor in a profit margin on all the prices that are offered by the bookies. Overround is what helps bookies decide the odds on any market and how much betting profit they will make.

Explaining Overround

A perfect book in betting odds will round up the implied probability of all outcomes at 100% in total. However, bookies make use of overround to increase this possibility to be higher than 100% and this overload becomes the profit for the bookies. So, if a bookie has odds of 1.43 for Wolves to win against Burnley with odds of 2.7, then we will calculate the implied probability. Using this formula, (1/Decimal Odds) x 100, the implied probability for a Wolves win lies at 70% and the odds for a Burnley win are at 37%. This means that there is an overround of 7% which is the profit the bookmakers will gain from this event.

Why bookmakers use accumulators

Bookmakers like it when gamblers place accumulator bets and when you consider our explanation of overrounds above, it is highly understandable. Accumulators increase the betting odds and uncoincidentally solidify a gambler’s chances of losing. When a gambler places multiple bets, it increases the overround. If a bookmaker has an overround of 103%, and a gambler selects 10 matches on an accumulator with 103% overround, then the bookie’s overround is 30%. In other words, his betting profit is 30%.

How overround is determined

Because gamblers don’t equally bet on all outcomes, there is a high chance that they will back one outcome instead of another. This is the reason why bookies prefer to overround the shorter odds on one and lengthen the odds on the other. In the process of adjusting odds, bookies make the effort to protect the overround. This process will help ensure that gamblers will begin to back other outcomes due to the improved odds on offer.

With highly popular markets, bookies understand that their overround has to be lower in order to be competitive against their rivals. With the large volume of bets on football matches, for example, there will still be enough incentive for profit.

How To Win The Bookies

How markets are determined when making a bet?

A market is something that allows people to trade their services or items in exchange for payment. Bookmakers allow their customers to only accept the price or buy on the outcome for a future event (except for exchanges with websites like Betfair) A market is only created in situations where the odds have been set by the bookmaker. These odds are only based on the gambler’s perception of chance relative to what the results of each event may be. Realistically, bookmakers typically do not bring up the prices of their markets in-house. Instead, their prices are received from third-party feed providers. Complex algorithms are applied by making use of the strength of the participants, previous data, audience betting predictions, or they get rid of the odds from the bookmaker and create aggregated prices. As a result of this, the bookmaker is given the choice to create a marketplace with odds that are competitive and less competitive.

With the amount of relative uncertainty with the outcome, a bookmaker will definitely lose confidence concerning the results of the bet. Bookmakers usually ensure that there is a large overround when creating odds for the market in order to fully ensure that there is a fully uncertain outcome.

Controlling risks in bookmaking

When the event is getting closer, there can be less uncertainty than that which was originally present in the original pricing. This means that the risks can be mitigated and there will be increased confidence levels from gamblers which leads to fewer amounts of overrounds in total. A bookmaker confident in their preliminary evaluation should not move the odds. This might not always be the best option as sometimes, not moving the odds will make the results to be out of line with what other operators have, and there will be overly exposed results on an outcome. Instead of taking that risk, bookmakers commonly alter the odds based on the drift of money. More cash coming in for the effects in the odds shortening and the options lengthened.

From this, we can definitely infer that there is a lot that goes into the work of bookmakers to successfully create odds with good overrounds. It is because of this extensive research that beating the bookmakers is one of the best goals to achieve in the world of sports betting.

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How Do Bookies Set Odds For Football

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