If $10 is bet at odds of 3/1, the potential profit is $30 ($10 x 3) and the total returned is $40 ($30 plus the $10 stake). Implied Probability. Odds correlate to probability. A 4/1 bet is expected to win one in every five attempts, therefore the probability is 20%. Odds Conversion Table. Slide 1 of 32: Odds are out for the next edition of The Great American Race from BetMGM. See which drivers are among the favorites for the 2021 Daytona 500, scheduled Sunday, Feb.

The rest of the world uses Decimal Odds, in part because it’s easier to convert them to implied probabilities than American Odds.Decimal odds represent the amount a bettor wins for every $1 wagered.And the number represents the total return, not just the profit like American and fractional odds. The Packers would be 1.714 in decimal odds as a -140 favorite in American odds. Daytona 500 odds today favor Denny Hamilton to win the first NASCAR race of 2021. American odds are a little trickier, as they operate using positive and negative odds. To convert positive odds to a decimal, divide the odds by 100 and then add 1. (+400/100) + 1 = 5.00. Converting American odds into fractional odds is simpler. Divide the odds by 100, and then reduce it to its simplest form, e.g., 400/100 is the same as 4.

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Michael McDowell was glued to Brad Keselowski's bumper, watching and waiting for his chance to win the Daytona 500.

Joey Logano was the leader, the laps were winding down and yet no one had the nerve to pull out of traffic. McDowell was certain Keselowski would go for it eventually, and when he did, McDowell would play his hand.

On the final lap, Keselowski attempted to dart around Logano, but Logano threw a block on his teammate that crashed them both. McDowell stayed right where he was, flat in the gas, and drove through a crash scene for a stunning upset.

“I knew he would go for a race-winning move and my plan was to let him make that move,” McDowell said. ”I knew I didn’t want to make my move too early, so I was committed to the (Keselowski) bumper and when he made the move, the hole opened up.'

A 100-1 underdog when the race began Sunday afternoon, McDowell won for the first time in 358 Cup starts when the checkered flag finally flew about 15 minutes after midnight. The race was stopped by rain for almost six hours and ended nine hours after the green flag waved at Daytona International Speedway.

“There’s been lots of years where I was wondering what the heck am I doing and why am I doing it?' McDowell said. “I always knew if I just kept grinding that one day everything will line up and go right.”

NASCAR's season opener was stacked with storylines. Denny Hamlin was trying for a record third-consecutive Daytona 500 victory, and the team he started with Michael Jordan was debuting with driver Bubba Wallace.

Kyle Larson was back after nearly a year in exile for using a racial slur, and reigning Cup champion Chase Elliott was going for his first Daytona 500 win.

And all the way at the back of the field, 1990 Daytona 500 winner Derrike Cope made what he said would be his final NASCAR start. At 62 he was the oldest driver in the field, and his upset victory 31 years ago was considered the biggest in race history.

McDowell didn't take that title from Cope, partly because McDowell is a strong superspeedway racer capable of mixing it up with the usual suspects. If he could ever find himself in the right place at the right time, McDowell figured he could steal a win.

“It's been a tough road for me. I've had to spend a lot of years grinding it out,” McDowell said. His career has been stabilized by four seasons driving for Front Row Motorsports, a tiny team in the Ford family that can hold its own at Daytona.

McDowell was in the mix even before the two Penske cars derailed the finish. His Ford was strong enough to push Keselowski, and McDowell figured with the checkered flag in sight, he'd try to pass Keselowski as they exited the final turn.

Logano's block of Keselowski — it seemed late, Keselowski had already started to pull alongside his teammate — triggered a fiery multi-car pileup that was in McDowell's rearview mirror.

“Brad was turning right, Joey was turning left and I went right through the middle,” McDowell said. “It's just kind of a blur from there.”

Keselowski subtly blamed Logano for the messy finish.

“I wanted to make the pass to win the Daytona 500 and it ended up really bad,” Keselowski said. “I don’t feel like I made a mistake, but I can’t drive everybody else’s car. So frustrating.”

Logano had no explanation for the ending.

”Pandemonium, I guess. Chaos struck,' said Logano, who then praised McDowell. “It’s a real bummer that none of the Penske cars won, but at least a Ford won and I’m really happy for McDowell.

“If we couldn’t win, I’m really happy to see McDowell win this thing.”

McDowell, who led less than half of a lap, drag-raced Elliott and Austin Dillon until NASCAR finally called a caution.

A batch of solid contenders were knocked from the race just 15 laps in by a 16-car accident that began at the front of the field. It thinned the pack and set up a showdown between Kevin Harvick and Hamlin.

Hamlin and Harvick had the two best cars but pit strategy ended Hamlin's shot at winning a record third consecutive Daytona 500. The Ford drivers pitted first as a group, followed by the Chevrolets a lap later and finally the Toyotas.

But the Toyota group has just five cars and they couldn't group back together to reclaim control of the race. It put Logano, Keselowski and the Ford drivers out front, and Logano led the final 25 laps until Keselowski made his move.

McDowell held off Elliott and Dillon. Harvick finished fourth, and Hamlin was fifth after leading a race-high 98 laps.

Only 11 cars finished on the lead lap.

___

More AP NASCAR: https://apnews.com/NASCAR

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May 20, 2020, Darlington, SC, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) during the Toyota 500. Mandatory Credit: Brynn Anderson/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Network

The 2021 Daytona 500 will kick off a new NASCAR season on Sunday, when 40 drivers will try to make history with a win at the 63rd running of The Great American Race. Chase Elliott is only 25 years old, but he's made the NASCAR playoffs in each of his first five seasons, won 11 times in the last three years, and is coming off his first Cup championship. Now, he'll try to add a Daytona 500 crown to an already impressive resume when the green flag drops on NASCAR at Daytona 2021 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Elliott is 12th in the 2021 Daytona 500 starting lineup and listed at 10-1 in the 2021 Daytona 500 odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Two-time defending Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin will have a little more work to do since he's starting in 25th, but his superspeedway prowess means he's the 17-2 favorite in the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona odds. Before you scour the 2021 Daytona 500 starting lineup and make your NASCAR at Daytona predictions for the Great American Race, be sure to see the latest 2021 Daytona 500 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, his model simulated the 2021 NASCAR at Daytona race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard for the 2021 Daytona 500.

Top 2021 Daytona 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Aric Almirola, even though he's a 16-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021 from William Hill. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Almirola's confidence should be soaring after a win in the first 2021 Bluegreen Vacations Duel at Daytona, which resulted in a second-row starting spot with inside position.

The 36-year-old has made the playoffs the last three seasons, while superspeedways have been the site of both of his NASCAR Cup Series victories. Almirola won the 2018 1000bulbs.com 500 at Talladega and the 2014 Coke Zero 400 at Daytona. Stewart-Haas Racing also has Kevin Harvick starting inside the top 10 (eighth), so look for Almirola and Harvick to link up early and climb the 2021 Daytona 500 leaderboard.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the top Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Daytona 500 lineup. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion is 12th in the 2021 Daytona 500 starting grid.

Elliott finished second at Daytona last August, but that was his first career top-10 finish in 10 starts at the track. In fact, he'd never finished higher than 14th at this iconic venue, and he's finished 17th or worse in his last three Daytona 500s. His low odds, combined with his lack of success at Daytona, make him one of the drivers to fade at the Daytona 500 2021.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Daytona picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Daytona odds of 13-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

Odds 500-1 Mean

So who wins the 2021 Daytona 500? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 Daytona 500 odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Daytona 500 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin's win last season.

2021 Daytona 500 odds

Denny Hamlin 17-2

Chase Elliott 10-1

Joey Logano 11-1

Kyle Larson 11-1

Ryan Blaney 11-1

Brad Keselowski 12-1

William Byron 13-1

Video: NASCAR drivers return for 63rd Daytona 500 (NBC Sports)

Kevin Harvick 13-1

Alex Bowman 13-1

Kyle Busch 14-1

Martin Truex Jr. 15-1

Aric Almirola 16-1

Kurt Busch 22-1

Bubba Wallace 22-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 25-1

Christopher Bell 28-1

Austin Dillon 30-1

Ross Chastain 35-1

Matt DiBenedetto 35-1

Ryan Newman 40-1

Tyler Reddick 55-1

Cole Custer 60-1

Odds 5000 To 1

Austin Cindric 60-1

Jamie McMurray 60-1

Erik Jones 60-1

Chris Buescher 65-1

Chase Briscoe 70-1

Daniel Suarez 100-1

Michael McDowell 100-1

David Ragan 125-1

Corey Lajoie 125-1

Ryan Preece 200-1

Anthony Alfredo 250-1

Kaz Grala 250-1

BJ McLeod 1000-1

Cody Ware 1000-1

500 000 To 1 Odds

Quin Houff 1000-1

Joey Gase 1000-1

Josh Bilicki 1000-1

Derrike Cope 2000-1