Timeform Derby Ratings

 

Stay Updated with DRF Morning Line. Free Race-of-the-Day video analysis & PPs, DRF Bets Gameplan Play-of-the-Day, all the latest racing news and more. English King is a real Derby contender. The unusual start to the 2020 Flat season didn’t make the Lingfield Derby trial any deeper than normal. It was an all-British affair for the first time since 2012 and the pair at the head of the betting, English King and Berkshire Rocco, pulled clear of.

By Timeform — published 2nd July 2020

Timeform reveal which horses in the last 50 years ran to the highest rating when winning the Derby at Epsom.

1. Shergar (Timform Rating 140)

Few horses are as famous as Shergar, whose kidnapping when at stud in 1983 sparked a media frenzy. However, he also attracted plenty of headlines for his performances on the track and is remembered as one of racing’s most talented horses, with his stunning ten-length success in the 1981 Derby a particular highlight.

Shergar romped away with the Classic Trial at Sandown and the Chester Vase, which ensured that he was sent off an odds-on favourite for the Derby in the hands of teenage prodigy Walter Swinburn. Shergar was produced to lead rounding Tattenham Corner and quickly drew right away from his rivals, eventually easing down as he passed the post ten lengths clear of Glint of Gold. He provided trainer Sir Michael Stoute with the first of his five Derby winners to date and his exceptional performance earned a rating of 140, which places him among the top dozen horses in Timeform’s history.

2. Troy (137)

Troy progressed markedly when upped in trip as a three-year-old, completing a famous Group 1 treble consisting of the Derby, Irish Derby and, up against older horses, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. It was, however, the first of those triumphs that really earmarked the Dick Hern-trained colt as a superstar and set him up to eventually win the Timeform horse of the year for 1979.

Having been held up through the first half of the race, Troy made progress on the outside in the straight and produced what became a trademark strong finishing effort to hit the front approaching the final furlong, drawing seven lengths clear of Dickens Hill, giving Willie Carson a first win in the race.

3. Slip Anchor (136)

Slip Anchor’s career peaked with a stunning performance in the 1985 Derby. Although the son of Shirley Heights had shown promise on his first few outings, the colt was not viewed as a Derby contender until producing a remarkable display in the Lingfield trial, where he made all to beat Lord Grundy by ten lengths.

Sent off the 9/4 favourite for the Derby on the back of such a display, Slip Anchor’s rider Steve Cauthen employed the same tactics to rout Law Society by seven lengths with a margin almost as far back to the others. It was a display which earned the Sir Henry Cecil-trained Slip Anchor a Timeform Rating of 136 and, though injury and temperament issues held him back thereafter, there’s no doubt he produced an outstanding performance at Epsom.

4= Nijinsky (135)

The Vincent O’Brien-trained Nijinsky completed the Triple Crown in 1970, winning the 2000 Guineas, Derby and St Leger, and no horse in the subsequent 50 years has matched the feat. Having won the 2000 Guineas by two and a half lengths, the son of Northern Dancer arrived at Epsom as a warm order for the Derby and he ran out a ready winner under Lester Piggott, beating Gyr by two and a half lengths, again proving himself an outstanding racehorse. Three months later Nijinsky made no mistake when it came to completing the Triple Crown in the St Leger at Doncaster, landing the odds of 7/2-on in straightforward fashion.

4= Grundy (135)

Following a perfect juvenile campaign which culminated in an impressive six-length win in the Dewhurst Stakes, Grundy’s three-year-old season didn’t start ideally as he suffered a first defeat in the 1975 Greenham Stakes at Newbury before bumping into Bolkonski in the 2000 Guineas. He did, however, regain the winning thread in the Irish 2000 Guineas before pulling clear at Epsom to beat Nobiliary by three lengths under Pat Eddery.

Timeform Rating Vs Beyer

Grundy, who was trained by Peter Walwyn, went on to be involved in one of the greatest duels of all time in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes later in the year as he famously held off Bustino to prevail after a ding-dong battle up the straight.

4= Generous (135)

The Paul Cole-trained Generous was beaten in the 2000 Guineas but, as his pedigree suggested, really appreciated stepping up to middle-distances and he racked up an impressive Group 1 hat-trick in 1991, starting with the Derby at Epsom.

After hitting the front entering the straight, Generous, ridden by Alan Munro, put his stamina to good use and impressively drew clear, beating runner-up Marju by five lengths with the rest of the field coming home at wide margins.

Generous went on to complete dominant victories in the Irish Derby and the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, underlining his top-class credentials.

With a little more than three months remaining until the 2021 Kentucky Derby, bettors have a good idea of who the fastest 3-year-olds on the Derby Trail are. The next step for these swift sophomores is to prove they can carry their speed over more demanding distances.

It is one thing to be fast going six furlongs or one mile and an entirely different thing to maintain that speed over a classic distance. Life Is Good and Jackie's Warrior, the first 3-year-olds in the current crop to achieve a Beyer Speed Figure above 100, both have questions surrounding their ability to carry their speed for 1 1/4 miles.

[RELATED – First Look: Kentucky Derby, Oaks preps on the weekend schedule]

Essential Quality's 95 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned while capturing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile remains the highest number for any runner beyond one mile. Considering he earned that number as a 2-year-old, he needs to show only marginal improvement to remain at the top of the division.

He continues to gain new company each week, however, as top prospects emerge.

The Great One (92), Prevalence (89) and Concert Tour (88) all recently earned impressive speed figures while breaking maiden in convincing fashion. The Great One already is stakes placed, while Prevalence and Concert Tour are a bit behind in the game after not starting as 2-year-olds. All three colts certainly have enough upside to record a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in the near future.

Speaking of visually impressive performances, Caddo River proved he was the real deal while demolishing the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn en route to a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. The Brad Cox trainee has gotten better as the distances have increased and is a big threat going forward.

It is interesting to compare Beyer Speed Figures to Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Figures for the fastest contenders. Timeform agrees with Beyer Speed Figures that Life Is Good, Jackie's Warrior and Medina Spirit are the fastest runners thus far, but they disagree when it comes to recent maiden winners.

Prevalence received a Beyer Speed Figure of 89 for his impressive debut score at Gulfstream but only a 98 Timeform Figure. Concert Tour gained an 88 Beyer Speed Figure for his win at Santa Anita and a 114 Timeform Figure, the highest of any debut winner.

Brisnet was less impressed with the Sham Stakes, giving Life Is Good a 98, two points lower than the 100 he earned for his debut win. Brisnet values the strength of the Remsen Stakes (G2) as Brooklyn Strong (107) and Table for Ten (106) have gained the two highest ratings thus far.

There is plenty of room for debate on who the fastest 3-year-old is at this stage, but it is becoming obvious that this has the potential to be one of the most promising groups of 3-year-olds in recent memory.

Below is a list of the fastest performances among the 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders sorted in order of highest Beyer Speed Figures.

HorseRaceDateBeyerBrisnetTimeform
Life Is GoodShamJan. 2101 98 120
Jackie's WarriorChampagneOct. 10 100101117
Medina SpiritShamJan. 2 99 97 118
Highly MotivatedNyquistNov. 6 96 102 109
Essential QualityBC JuvenileNov. 6 95 101 112
Jackie's WarriorHopefulSept. 7 95 96 116
Hot Rod CharlieBC JuvenileNov. 6 94 100 112
Brooklyn Strong RemsenDec. 5 93 107 113
Senor BuscadorSpringboard MileDec. 1893 94 116
Ten for TenRemsenDec. 593 106 114
Caddo RiverSmarty JonesJan. 22 92 n/a 109
The Great One Maiden Jan. 23 92 n/a n/a
KeepmeinmindBC JuvenileNov. 692 98 109
Roderick Allowance Nov. 29 92 94 103
Midnight Bourbon Lecomte Jan. 16 91 95 110
Life Is Good Maiden Nov. 22 91 100 113
Reinvestment RiskChampagneOct. 1091 94 110
Prate Maiden Dec. 19 90 93 106
Reinvestment Risk Maiden Aug. 1 90 96 109
Mandaloun Lecomte Jan. 16 89 93 109
MutasaabeqMucho Macho ManJan. 2 89 99 111
PrevalenceMaidenJan. 23 89 n/a 98
Proxy Lecomte Jan. 16 89 93 109
Concert TourMaidenJan. 15 88 94 114
Beyer speed figures and TimeformUS figures are courtesy of Daily Racing Form.
Brisnet speed ratings are courtesy ofBrisnet.

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